Yes, I understand that profit-taking could explain most of that drop. But there are other indicators that portend a grim future for Gingrich. First, spending network face-time in the toxic presence of Donald Trump may only cheapen the Gingrich brand. Already we have bloggers and TV talking heads giving Ron Paul more credit for declining Trump's debate invitation than credit to Gingrich for soliciting Trump's support.
Second, as mentioned in the previous post, a flood of negative stories about Gingrich are likely to come out between now and the January 3rd Iowa Caucus. Some of that is simply, front-runner envy; but, as even the most ardent Gingrich supporter will confess, their candidate as certain structural flaws that will not disappear due to his new found status. It probably doesn't help that his old friend, Bill Clinton, is even talking nice about him.
Third, the downside volume on Gingrich has ticked upward. Not a lot, but enough in the past 24 hours to suggest the selling isn't simply about securing well-earned gains, but a potential fear that those gains could evaporate in a matter days.
Where might the Gingrich support go? Early signs are positive for Ron Paul (see chart below) who has seen a sudden surge from 5 percent ot 7 percent on Intrade.com. Conversely, no immediate gains are evident for either Romney, Bachmann, or my pesonal long-term bet, Sarah Palin, who is back over 3 percent on the probability she will enter the race. Perry, by the way, has a 2.8 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination, with no discernable trend.
Kent, a Message to Conservative Voters in Iowa asks that Iowans vote rogue by writing-in Sarah Palin. Have you seen the Message posted at republicanloudmouth? Do you think this write-in campaign could help push the 3% probability for the Governor to enter the race?
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