IS IT TOO LATE FOR PALIN TO ENTER? NO, AND HERE IS THE SCENARIO SHE WOULD HAVE TO FOLLOW:

A number of Politome readers have pointed out that even if Palin wanted to enter the race now, it would be too late as candidate filing deadlines have passed in some of the key states (Ohio, Texas, Florida).  Rachel Maddow made that point on her MSNBC show last night as well.  You can go to this link to see all of the filing deadlines for presidential candidates ==>  Filing Deadlines .   However, I think there is some wishful thinking going on with the "it's too late" argument.

First, many key states (California, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey) have candidate filing deadlines in February or later.  There is a significant number of delegates to be won in states that have late registration filing deadlines.  Second, and more importantly, if a new Republican candidate were to enter the race after the First Wave contests (Iowa, NH, SC, FL), it is much more difficult for them to garner enough delegates in the Second and Third Wave primaries (e.g., California) to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot.  However, they don't need to win on the first ballot.  This 'new' candidate simply needs to have enough delegates to prevent someone else (mostly likely Romney) from having enough delegates to win on the first ballot.  Given that the Republican Party has increased the number of state primaries using a proportinal allocation of delegates, it will be harder for any candidate to win on the first ballot.  What McCain did in 2008 to win is not as likely this time around.  And, if Romney (or the candidate with the most committed delegates) does not win on the first ballot, Republican national delegates are free to choose any candidate in the second ballot.

Here are the rules for delegates at the 2012 Republican Convention:

NRP – Delegate Binding Rules for 2012:
Section 5 – Binding of National Delegates and Alternates
All National Delegates and Alternates, ex efficio, At Large and Congressional District, shall be required to vote for the Presidential Candidate to whom they are bound.  This requirement applies only to the first vote at the Republican National Convention.

If Palin wants to enter the race, a multi-ballot Republican convention is the most likely scenario for her to win the nomination.  It is certainly risky and opens up the possibility of a deeply divided party going into the general election.  But, as Palin herself notes, there is no excitement right now within the Republican base for any of the current candidates.  That, in the final analysis, could be more harmful to the Republican's chances in November than any divisions caused by a contentious national convention.