Probability of Gingrich winning Iowa now at 45 percent, down from 60 percent just a few days ago. Ron Paul, in contrast, back over 28 percent probability of winning Iowa and rising fast. Surge of Paul probability likely the result of an understanding among investors that organization wins Iowa, not poll numbers. Ron Paul has a deep organization in Iowa, even if built upon a young demographic that tends to underwhelm when it comes to voter turnout, particularly for a caucus. Nonetheless, significant Intrade.com money is now shifting to Ron Paul at the expense of Gingrich. Note: Romney below 15 percent probability in Iowa, according to Intrade.com. Also, evangelicals may come out in force for Bachmann, who now has a 5 percent chance of winning Iowa. Those are Tebow-like odds.
No comments:
Post a Comment