As of 9:19am CST, Dec. 29, Intrade continues to predict a Ron Paul victory in Iowa, despite recent CNN poll showing Romney ahead and Santorum on the rise. The most recent Intrade charts are below:
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
IS IT TOO LATE FOR PALIN TO ENTER? NO, AND HERE IS THE SCENARIO SHE WOULD HAVE TO FOLLOW:
A number of Politome readers have pointed out that even if Palin wanted to enter the race now, it would be too late as candidate filing deadlines have passed in some of the key states (Ohio, Texas, Florida). Rachel Maddow made that point on her MSNBC show last night as well. You can go to this link to see all of the filing deadlines for presidential candidates ==> Filing Deadlines . However, I think there is some wishful thinking going on with the "it's too late" argument.
First, many key states (California, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey) have candidate filing deadlines in February or later. There is a significant number of delegates to be won in states that have late registration filing deadlines. Second, and more importantly, if a new Republican candidate were to enter the race after the First Wave contests (Iowa, NH, SC, FL), it is much more difficult for them to garner enough delegates in the Second and Third Wave primaries (e.g., California) to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. However, they don't need to win on the first ballot. This 'new' candidate simply needs to have enough delegates to prevent someone else (mostly likely Romney) from having enough delegates to win on the first ballot. Given that the Republican Party has increased the number of state primaries using a proportinal allocation of delegates, it will be harder for any candidate to win on the first ballot. What McCain did in 2008 to win is not as likely this time around. And, if Romney (or the candidate with the most committed delegates) does not win on the first ballot, Republican national delegates are free to choose any candidate in the second ballot.
Here are the rules for delegates at the 2012 Republican Convention:
NRP – Delegate Binding Rules for 2012:
Section 5 – Binding of National Delegates and Alternates
All National Delegates and Alternates, ex efficio, At Large and Congressional District, shall be required to vote for the Presidential Candidate to whom they are bound. This requirement applies only to the first vote at the Republican National Convention.
If Palin wants to enter the race, a multi-ballot Republican convention is the most likely scenario for her to win the nomination. It is certainly risky and opens up the possibility of a deeply divided party going into the general election. But, as Palin herself notes, there is no excitement right now within the Republican base for any of the current candidates. That, in the final analysis, could be more harmful to the Republican's chances in November than any divisions caused by a contentious national convention.
First, many key states (California, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey) have candidate filing deadlines in February or later. There is a significant number of delegates to be won in states that have late registration filing deadlines. Second, and more importantly, if a new Republican candidate were to enter the race after the First Wave contests (Iowa, NH, SC, FL), it is much more difficult for them to garner enough delegates in the Second and Third Wave primaries (e.g., California) to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. However, they don't need to win on the first ballot. This 'new' candidate simply needs to have enough delegates to prevent someone else (mostly likely Romney) from having enough delegates to win on the first ballot. Given that the Republican Party has increased the number of state primaries using a proportinal allocation of delegates, it will be harder for any candidate to win on the first ballot. What McCain did in 2008 to win is not as likely this time around. And, if Romney (or the candidate with the most committed delegates) does not win on the first ballot, Republican national delegates are free to choose any candidate in the second ballot.
Here are the rules for delegates at the 2012 Republican Convention:
NRP – Delegate Binding Rules for 2012:
Section 5 – Binding of National Delegates and Alternates
All National Delegates and Alternates, ex efficio, At Large and Congressional District, shall be required to vote for the Presidential Candidate to whom they are bound. This requirement applies only to the first vote at the Republican National Convention.
If Palin wants to enter the race, a multi-ballot Republican convention is the most likely scenario for her to win the nomination. It is certainly risky and opens up the possibility of a deeply divided party going into the general election. But, as Palin herself notes, there is no excitement right now within the Republican base for any of the current candidates. That, in the final analysis, could be more harmful to the Republican's chances in November than any divisions caused by a contentious national convention.
Monday, December 19, 2011
PALIN OPENS THE DOOR EVER SO SLIGHTLY
Sarah Palin has opened the door, if only slightly, for her quixotic return to the presidential race. the source article is here: Palin Says It's Not Too Late to Enter . As stated previously in this blog, it is logical for Palin to wait until all challengers to Romney have shot their wad. With the likely fall of Gingrich, the door has opened -- significantly -- for a Palin return. In the meantime, Romney frantically tries to line up as many big-league endorsements in order to dissuade Palin from even considering getting in. The REAL fun is only beginning.....
Thursday, December 15, 2011
INTRADE MARKET MANIPULATION ALERT!!
The magnitude of price movements in the Intrade.com markets for 2012.Rep.Nom.Gingrich and 2012.Rep.Nom.Romney cannot be explained by recent events. As the charts below indicate, the Intrade.com market has moved solidly in favor of Romney winning the Republican nomination.
In fact, the most recent price quotes, as of 10:30am CST, had Gingrich with a 19 percent probability of getting the Republican nomination and Romney was at 63 percent. A drop and rise of this magnitude requires explanation. To me, there is no obvious cause for this turn of events.
While it has been my opinion since Gingrich's rise to the top of the Republican heap that he would be a short-term phenomenon, the price movement in the past 24 hours is unprecedented given the lack of major news during this period. It took weeks for Cain's campaign to crumble under the weight of allegations regarding his "offline" behavior. So, what in the past 24 hours explains Gingrich's sudden drop on Intrade.com? I believe there may be active market manipulation going on within the Intrade 2012 Republican Nomination market.
Whether it is from the Romney campaign itself or someone (or some group) with the resources to manipulate the Intrade market, it is clear from the price data that a significant amount of money has shifted from Gingrich to Romney. If prices on Gingrich rebound substantially in the next 24 hours, it will increase speculation that this current shift towards Romney was a manipulation effort unrelated to actual events.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Ron Paul to Win Iowa?
Probability of Gingrich winning Iowa now at 45 percent, down from 60 percent just a few days ago. Ron Paul, in contrast, back over 28 percent probability of winning Iowa and rising fast. Surge of Paul probability likely the result of an understanding among investors that organization wins Iowa, not poll numbers. Ron Paul has a deep organization in Iowa, even if built upon a young demographic that tends to underwhelm when it comes to voter turnout, particularly for a caucus. Nonetheless, significant Intrade.com money is now shifting to Ron Paul at the expense of Gingrich. Note: Romney below 15 percent probability in Iowa, according to Intrade.com. Also, evangelicals may come out in force for Bachmann, who now has a 5 percent chance of winning Iowa. Those are Tebow-like odds.
Gingrich regains momentum, but downside risk remains
The fall of Newt Gingrich is delayed...or so it would seem based on recent polling (see RCP) and investor sentiment on Intrade.com. To be fair, Gingrich has shown some remarkable resiliency to the significant "inside the beltway" skepticism that has come out in full force regarding the long-term viability of his presidential campaign. However, a closer look at his rise on Intrade.com reveals a pattern similar to Governor Rick Perry's late-summer rise and fall. Take a look at the Intrade.com charts for both of them:
Even with perhaps the worst run presidential campaign since Phil Gramm (R-TX), Perry was a legitimate threat to Mitt Romney for over two months. Only after some disastrous debate performances and a weak response to the naming controversy concerning his family's hunting lodge did Perry's probability of getting the nomination precipitously fall. More interestingly, both Perry and Gingrich seem to max out around a 40 percent chance of getting the nomination. This seems to be the upside limit of any challenge to Romney -- at least for now. Adding weight to that conclusion, according to Intrade.com's reporting of unmatched trades on the Gingrich nomination contract, is the selling pressure that likely will hit Gingrich shares should any buyers emerge at $3.86 a share (that is, a nomination probability of 38.6 percent).
However, nobody could have forseen Romney making one of the dumbest (and most avoidable) debate mistakes in presidential election history. The '$10,000 bet' with Perry will haunt Romney for the rest of his campaign and has provided Gingrich the upper-hand going into the last debate prior to the Iowa Caucus. Perhaps more startling, Romney's bet made the former Texas governor look like the only adult in that exchange. Making Perry look good on his feet is a real challenge, but Romney may have done it. While too early to know for sure, in a year that bet may be described as the campaign killer. Much like Mondale's "Where's the beef?" retort to Gary Hart in the 1984 Democratic nomination race or Ford's "Soviet non-domination of Eastern Europe" assertion in 1976, this debate gaffe will have legs because it builds on an existing narrative that Romney is out-of-touch with us 'normal folk.' The Romney campaign staff's tepid attempt at damage control lends credence to the assertion that this mistake might have cut to the bone.
So, is Gingrich on his way to the nomination? I still don't think so. I do believe Gingrich is more disciplined today than he was as House Speaker, but his existing baggage cannot be ignored. It's not his infidelities or his stunted intellectualism regarding the historical context of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict that will do him in with Republican voters -- rather, it his is proclivity to see the nuance in public policies and to utter opinions that are sometimes in direct conflict with the sentiments of the Republican base. His thoughtful stance on the status of current illegal immigrants or on Rep. Paul Ryan's Medicare plan are just two examples of this tendency. It is not a bad tendency in a general election, mind you, but it is not one that works well with the partisans that show up for Republican primaries and caucuses. Gingrich will pay a steep price with Republican voters for his willingness to deviate from party doctrine, particularly Tea Party Republicans.
Even with perhaps the worst run presidential campaign since Phil Gramm (R-TX), Perry was a legitimate threat to Mitt Romney for over two months. Only after some disastrous debate performances and a weak response to the naming controversy concerning his family's hunting lodge did Perry's probability of getting the nomination precipitously fall. More interestingly, both Perry and Gingrich seem to max out around a 40 percent chance of getting the nomination. This seems to be the upside limit of any challenge to Romney -- at least for now. Adding weight to that conclusion, according to Intrade.com's reporting of unmatched trades on the Gingrich nomination contract, is the selling pressure that likely will hit Gingrich shares should any buyers emerge at $3.86 a share (that is, a nomination probability of 38.6 percent).
However, nobody could have forseen Romney making one of the dumbest (and most avoidable) debate mistakes in presidential election history. The '$10,000 bet' with Perry will haunt Romney for the rest of his campaign and has provided Gingrich the upper-hand going into the last debate prior to the Iowa Caucus. Perhaps more startling, Romney's bet made the former Texas governor look like the only adult in that exchange. Making Perry look good on his feet is a real challenge, but Romney may have done it. While too early to know for sure, in a year that bet may be described as the campaign killer. Much like Mondale's "Where's the beef?" retort to Gary Hart in the 1984 Democratic nomination race or Ford's "Soviet non-domination of Eastern Europe" assertion in 1976, this debate gaffe will have legs because it builds on an existing narrative that Romney is out-of-touch with us 'normal folk.' The Romney campaign staff's tepid attempt at damage control lends credence to the assertion that this mistake might have cut to the bone.
So, is Gingrich on his way to the nomination? I still don't think so. I do believe Gingrich is more disciplined today than he was as House Speaker, but his existing baggage cannot be ignored. It's not his infidelities or his stunted intellectualism regarding the historical context of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict that will do him in with Republican voters -- rather, it his is proclivity to see the nuance in public policies and to utter opinions that are sometimes in direct conflict with the sentiments of the Republican base. His thoughtful stance on the status of current illegal immigrants or on Rep. Paul Ryan's Medicare plan are just two examples of this tendency. It is not a bad tendency in a general election, mind you, but it is not one that works well with the partisans that show up for Republican primaries and caucuses. Gingrich will pay a steep price with Republican voters for his willingness to deviate from party doctrine, particularly Tea Party Republicans.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
As Covert War Continues Against Iran, Market Expects Increased Chance of Overt Attack in 2012
On the heals of Iranian claims to have downed an American intelligence drone (story here), the nuclear prolifeation watchdog organization, the Institute for Science and International Security, an independent non-profit led by former United Nations nuclear inspector, David Albright, has provided satellite imagery evidence that the November 16, 2011 blast at an Iranian military base was more devasting than originally believed (see the original New York Times story here: Iran Base Explosion).
And only a few days earlier, former Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, said on Israeli television that an Israeli attack on Iran would be a "catastrophe" (see Haaretz.com story here: Former Mossad Chief Dagan Speaks Out). These events, in addition to reports over the past two years of assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists and computer virus attacks directed at the Iranian nuclear industry, have led more than a few media outlets to speculate that the war against Iran has already started (see Dec. 5th Atlantic article). Whether these alleged covert activities are the actions of Israel, the United States, or some combination, is uncertain. What is certain is Iran's closing in on a nuclear weapons capability that strikes fear into more than a few of its neighbors, not just Israel.
On Intrade.com, contracts regarding the likelihood of a U.S or Israeli overt attack on Iran's nuclear capabilities are increasingly active and the prices (i.e., probability estimates) have significantly increased in the past few weeks. Since late November, the Intrade.com market estimates that probability of an attack by June 30, 2012 has increased from 12 to 30 percent. Trading is considerably lighter on this Intrade.com contract in comparison to the 2012 Republican nomination-related contracts; but, nonethless, these recent price movements are consistent with a much longer term upward trend in a number of a contracts related to the probability of an airstrike on Iran (see charts below).
The fact that a former Mossad chief would publicly denounce even the idea of an Israeli military strike suggests a dynamic and divisive debate is occurring between Israel's military and political leaders right now. Former UN Ambassador John Bolton said last year, as Iran was installing fueling rods at its Bushehr nuclear plant, that the opportunity to effectively attack Iran's nuclear capabalities is slipping away. But, a year and half later, on December 1st, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak assured the world that an attack on Iran is still not imminent. Bolton's war-mongering tendancies aside, the idea of an attack on Iran is clearly not absurd as both sides on the argument are organizing their forces to weigh in on this debate. Whether the Intrade.com market is just reacting to this open source media chatter or to something more fundamental, only time will tell. But I would suggest anyone who cares about peace and security in our times, pay close attention to these Intrade.com contracts over the next year.
And only a few days earlier, former Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, said on Israeli television that an Israeli attack on Iran would be a "catastrophe" (see Haaretz.com story here: Former Mossad Chief Dagan Speaks Out). These events, in addition to reports over the past two years of assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists and computer virus attacks directed at the Iranian nuclear industry, have led more than a few media outlets to speculate that the war against Iran has already started (see Dec. 5th Atlantic article). Whether these alleged covert activities are the actions of Israel, the United States, or some combination, is uncertain. What is certain is Iran's closing in on a nuclear weapons capability that strikes fear into more than a few of its neighbors, not just Israel.
On Intrade.com, contracts regarding the likelihood of a U.S or Israeli overt attack on Iran's nuclear capabilities are increasingly active and the prices (i.e., probability estimates) have significantly increased in the past few weeks. Since late November, the Intrade.com market estimates that probability of an attack by June 30, 2012 has increased from 12 to 30 percent. Trading is considerably lighter on this Intrade.com contract in comparison to the 2012 Republican nomination-related contracts; but, nonethless, these recent price movements are consistent with a much longer term upward trend in a number of a contracts related to the probability of an airstrike on Iran (see charts below).
The fact that a former Mossad chief would publicly denounce even the idea of an Israeli military strike suggests a dynamic and divisive debate is occurring between Israel's military and political leaders right now. Former UN Ambassador John Bolton said last year, as Iran was installing fueling rods at its Bushehr nuclear plant, that the opportunity to effectively attack Iran's nuclear capabalities is slipping away. But, a year and half later, on December 1st, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak assured the world that an attack on Iran is still not imminent. Bolton's war-mongering tendancies aside, the idea of an attack on Iran is clearly not absurd as both sides on the argument are organizing their forces to weigh in on this debate. Whether the Intrade.com market is just reacting to this open source media chatter or to something more fundamental, only time will tell. But I would suggest anyone who cares about peace and security in our times, pay close attention to these Intrade.com contracts over the next year.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Gringrich Decline Has Started
It is official. The Gingrich decline into oblivion -- at least for the 2012 election cycle -- has begun. As of 4:10pm (Central Time), according to Intrade.com, the probability of Gingrich winning the 2012 Republican nomination has fallen over 7 percent from its all-time high of 38 percent just two days ago.
Yes, I understand that profit-taking could explain most of that drop. But there are other indicators that portend a grim future for Gingrich. First, spending network face-time in the toxic presence of Donald Trump may only cheapen the Gingrich brand. Already we have bloggers and TV talking heads giving Ron Paul more credit for declining Trump's debate invitation than credit to Gingrich for soliciting Trump's support.
Second, as mentioned in the previous post, a flood of negative stories about Gingrich are likely to come out between now and the January 3rd Iowa Caucus. Some of that is simply, front-runner envy; but, as even the most ardent Gingrich supporter will confess, their candidate as certain structural flaws that will not disappear due to his new found status. It probably doesn't help that his old friend, Bill Clinton, is even talking nice about him.
Third, the downside volume on Gingrich has ticked upward. Not a lot, but enough in the past 24 hours to suggest the selling isn't simply about securing well-earned gains, but a potential fear that those gains could evaporate in a matter days.
Where might the Gingrich support go? Early signs are positive for Ron Paul (see chart below) who has seen a sudden surge from 5 percent ot 7 percent on Intrade.com. Conversely, no immediate gains are evident for either Romney, Bachmann, or my pesonal long-term bet, Sarah Palin, who is back over 3 percent on the probability she will enter the race. Perry, by the way, has a 2.8 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination, with no discernable trend.
Yes, I understand that profit-taking could explain most of that drop. But there are other indicators that portend a grim future for Gingrich. First, spending network face-time in the toxic presence of Donald Trump may only cheapen the Gingrich brand. Already we have bloggers and TV talking heads giving Ron Paul more credit for declining Trump's debate invitation than credit to Gingrich for soliciting Trump's support.
Second, as mentioned in the previous post, a flood of negative stories about Gingrich are likely to come out between now and the January 3rd Iowa Caucus. Some of that is simply, front-runner envy; but, as even the most ardent Gingrich supporter will confess, their candidate as certain structural flaws that will not disappear due to his new found status. It probably doesn't help that his old friend, Bill Clinton, is even talking nice about him.
Third, the downside volume on Gingrich has ticked upward. Not a lot, but enough in the past 24 hours to suggest the selling isn't simply about securing well-earned gains, but a potential fear that those gains could evaporate in a matter days.
Where might the Gingrich support go? Early signs are positive for Ron Paul (see chart below) who has seen a sudden surge from 5 percent ot 7 percent on Intrade.com. Conversely, no immediate gains are evident for either Romney, Bachmann, or my pesonal long-term bet, Sarah Palin, who is back over 3 percent on the probability she will enter the race. Perry, by the way, has a 2.8 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination, with no discernable trend.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
This is how it works: The Rise and then a Fall
The eventual Republican presidential nominee has not yet entered the race. That may be opinion, but today's dropout of Cain and the events of the past month only confirm that opinion. In this campaign we have seen the rise and fall of Bachmann, Perry, and Cain. What is the common denominator? Once their rise had been established, each subsequently received the 'front-runner treatment' in the press. And I do not distinguish the 'liberal' press from its 'conservative' variant. It hasn't happened yet, but even Fox News will get into the game of challenging the Gringrich -- even if he was once on their payroll. Perhaps they'll do it soon, given Gingrich's recent unprovoked attack on the intelligence and integrity of Fox News analysts (see here).
More predictably, we are seeing the critical stories (or rather, rehashed non-stories) from the other media outlets (see The Atlantic Story by Molly Ball and the editorial by Charles Krauthammer are the most recentn examples). There is no news in these stories or the other ones soon to be published/posted/broadcasted. Yeah, I would like an answer on the $250,000 Tiffany's bill, but its not news until Mr. Gingrich actually provides an explanation. For now, it will serve as part of the drumbeat that we will hear from now until......we get another front-runner. I recommend dumping your Gingrich stock, while you still can.
More predictably, we are seeing the critical stories (or rather, rehashed non-stories) from the other media outlets (see The Atlantic Story by Molly Ball and the editorial by Charles Krauthammer are the most recentn examples). There is no news in these stories or the other ones soon to be published/posted/broadcasted. Yeah, I would like an answer on the $250,000 Tiffany's bill, but its not news until Mr. Gingrich actually provides an explanation. For now, it will serve as part of the drumbeat that we will hear from now until......we get another front-runner. I recommend dumping your Gingrich stock, while you still can.
HERE WE GO AGAIN
Cain is gone. No surprise. He was the Tea Party favorite (for at least a while) and it does appear Gingrich has already taken over that role and then some. But, even Gingrich may have seen that support peak. It is early, but for the first time in days, Gingrich's price on Intrade.com has declined, if only slightly (he's around $0.35 share as of ten minutes ago). The chart below shows that drop. More interestingly, this is about the same position that Perry saw his first drop on Intrade.com. Is there a ceiling for the "anybody but Romney" support level? It is starting to appear so...
Oh, and, by the way, for all of you still screaming at me for my "Palin Returns" post (and rightfully so), I am compelled to show the most recent chart on "Palin Entering the Presidential Race" market on Intrade.com. A rise from $0.02 to $0.03 is insignificant, but you have to start somewhere.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have never traded on Intrade.com. I only report on its movements.
Because of my post four days ago, a number (a large number) of Iowa Palin supporters have been sending me emails. I won't share the nasty comments. However, on the positive comment side, many say they will support her regardless of her decision or endorsement of another candidate. It would be unprecedented for a non-declared candidate to win a major party nomination.... but, these aren't normal times, are they?
Oh, and, by the way, for all of you still screaming at me for my "Palin Returns" post (and rightfully so), I am compelled to show the most recent chart on "Palin Entering the Presidential Race" market on Intrade.com. A rise from $0.02 to $0.03 is insignificant, but you have to start somewhere.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have never traded on Intrade.com. I only report on its movements.
Because of my post four days ago, a number (a large number) of Iowa Palin supporters have been sending me emails. I won't share the nasty comments. However, on the positive comment side, many say they will support her regardless of her decision or endorsement of another candidate. It would be unprecedented for a non-declared candidate to win a major party nomination.... but, these aren't normal times, are they?
Thursday, December 1, 2011
What sayeth the data....
This post is sticking strictly with the facts (courtesy of Intrade.com).
Gingrich, despite looking at a tremendous pay cut should he become president, is looking very strong:
If Palin is considering jumping back in, it's not showing up here yet:
Gingrich, despite looking at a tremendous pay cut should he become president, is looking very strong:
For Romney, it could be worse:
If Palin is considering jumping back in, it's not showing up here yet:
Mrs. Cain should look at this chart before she decides the fate of her husband's campaign. Actually, I think people have already decided the fate of her husband's campaign:
And perhaps the most important chart of all -- the probability that Obama is re-elected, which hasn't changed much with the rise of Gingrich.
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