In fact, the most recent price quotes, as of 10:30am CST, had Gingrich with a 19 percent probability of getting the Republican nomination and Romney was at 63 percent. A drop and rise of this magnitude requires explanation. To me, there is no obvious cause for this turn of events.
While it has been my opinion since Gingrich's rise to the top of the Republican heap that he would be a short-term phenomenon, the price movement in the past 24 hours is unprecedented given the lack of major news during this period. It took weeks for Cain's campaign to crumble under the weight of allegations regarding his "offline" behavior. So, what in the past 24 hours explains Gingrich's sudden drop on Intrade.com? I believe there may be active market manipulation going on within the Intrade 2012 Republican Nomination market.
Whether it is from the Romney campaign itself or someone (or some group) with the resources to manipulate the Intrade market, it is clear from the price data that a significant amount of money has shifted from Gingrich to Romney. If prices on Gingrich rebound substantially in the next 24 hours, it will increase speculation that this current shift towards Romney was a manipulation effort unrelated to actual events.
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