Sunday, July 24, 2011

Is the U.S. Debt Really a Problem? (You will not find the answer below)

For those wondering where the U.S. public debt (as a percent of GDP, using IMF definitions) ranks with other high-debt countries.  Below is the list of the 20 countries with the largest public debt as a percent of GDP (according to the International Monetary Funds' 2010 estimates) :

 Japan225.8%
 Saint Kitts and Nevis196.3%
 Lebanon138.9%
 Jamaica135.7%
 Greece130.2%
 Italy118.4%
 Iceland115.6%
 Belgium100.2%
 Singapore98.9%
 Ireland93.6%
 United States92.7%
 France84.2%
 Portugal83.1%
 Dominica83.0%
 Seychelles82.6%
 Canada81.7%
 Hungary78.4%
 Belize78.1%
 United Kingdom76.7%
 Israel76.1%

Yes, the U.S. is in deep debt compared to other advanced industrial economies.  Is it a crisis?  It depends.  If the debt is largely a function of public investments in infrastructure, education, technology, and scientific research and development (see China today or the U.S. in 1946), you need not worry.  Future returns will more than handle your debt burden (on a personal level, its like a young doctor who has incurred significant student loan debt but has not yet realized what will be significant future monetary gains).  If, however, your debt is structural, such as interest payments on the debt and obligations to entitlement programs, then you might have a problem.  The U.S. would appear to be the latter.  But is it a crisis?  Increasingly voters think it is, but numerous economists argue that the real crisis in the U.S. is the lack of demand and now is NOT the time to cut government spending.  Is it possible both arguments are correct?

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