Bachmann's Road to the Nomination

Washington, D.C. (July 3, 2011) - A month ago a senior operative at the Republican National Committee (RNC) suggested to me privately that the Michele Bachmann campaign is nothing more than a stalking horse campaign, a comely vessel through which to test some of the more polarizing rhetorical strategies being considered by Republican Party senior leaders for the general election.  At the very least, during this early juncture in the nomination process, Bachmann is an entertaining diversion for what will likely be a very contentious nomination fight and an equally competitive general election campaign.

The results of the June 27th Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, however, may be changing views both within and outside the Republican Party.  According to the Iowa Poll, Bachmann is in a virtual tie with national frontrunner Mitt Romney among likely Iowa caucus attendees (at 22 and 23 percent support, respectively).  More importantly, among likely Iowa caucus-goers, Bachmann has the highest favorability rating (65 percent) and one of the lowest unfavorability ratings (12 percent - Gov. Rick Perry has the lowest at 8 percent ).  Even among political analysts most dismissive of Bachmann's national viability, the growing consensus is that she has a real chance of winning Iowa.  A product of near-homestate-bias or not, such a victory by Bachmann could easily make her competitive in the contests immediately following Iowa (namely, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada).  If she wins two of those three contests, Romney is done.  While the Romney campaign has sent signals that it does not consider victories in Iowa or South Carolina critical to their overall strategy, that strategy may not work if an electable anti-Romney candidate wins both Iowa and South Carolina.  For Romney to win the nomination, he will need to prove at some point that a Mormon from the liberal North can win in the conservative South.

The senior RNC operative mentioned above, for one, now sees Bachmann as the likely winner of the Iowa caucuses early next year (with or without Texas Governor Rick Perry or Sarah Palin entering the race).  "Among the declared and likely GOP candidates, nobody gets more airtime on Fox News than Michele Bachmann," the RNC operative noted.  "And its entirely framed in the most positive tones.  A campaign can't buy that kind of publicity."  Bachmann also seems to possess one of the qualities that made Ronald Reagan so annoying to the Democrats.  Negative coverage doesn't seem to diminish her standing among Independent voters -- at least not yet.  Which is in contrast to Sarah Palin, whose negative coverage seems to have a long half-life with voters, particularly with the Independent voters so critical to any credible national candidacy.  More importantly, all the trend lines are in Bachmann's favor and at the direct expense of Palin's numbers, making it appear that, as of July 3, 2011, Bachmann is what Palin wants to be - a serious presidential candidate.