GINGRICH PATH TO NOMINATION DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE

Gingrich may actually win SC.  Predictably, the mainstream media (and blogosphere) are dismissing Gingrich's potential to win the Republican nomination and reminding us that conventional wisdom says the eventual Republican nominee will be the person with the best organization and big campaign bank account:  That would be Mitt Romney.  (Here are just a couple of those dismissals of Gingrich:  Click Here and Here)  I tend to believe conventional wisdom on this.  


However, this may be the year conventional wisdom gets turned upside down.  Remember, the Republicans have increased the percentage of conventional delegates allocated through proportional voting; in part, because of complaints after the 2008 election McCain wrapped it up far too early given the number of Republicans dissatisfied with their eventual 2008 nominee.  Bottom line:  The probability that Romney wins the nomination on the first ballot is still high, but not as high as it would have been in earlier elections.


So, for the time being, let's try the alternative history approach.  How could Gingrich still win this thing (and Santorum as well).  Obviously, the first step for Gingrich is to win South Carolina and Florida.  Neither are easy for Gingrich to win (especially Florida) but, for argument's sake, let us assume that he does win both.

Don't forget during Gingrich's first surge, polls in Florida swung dramatically in his favor.  He can win Florida, but even if he does, he walks out of there with little organization nationally and significantly less money than Romney.  Whereas in South Carolina and Florida, Gingrich can debate his way into victory (in lieu of having organizational or money), but that strategy doesn't work after Florida.  After Florida, it's Super Tuesday and that, as in the past, requires an ground game that only money and organization can provide.

But, what if?  What if after a Florida victory, Gingrich receives the endorsements of Republican governors, state legislators and congressman that weren't in Washington when Gingrich was the Speaker.  They don't the experiences with the "bad" Gingrich Version 1.0, they only know Gingrich 2.0 (or perhaps he's up to Version 3.0 now).  With these endorsements comes the money.  It's too late the build the organization that matches Romney's.  But it is not too late to build the media campaign to match Romney's.  With new money  post-Florida, Gingrich (or Santorum) can compete all the way through early June and that includes the big states (minus Virginia, of course).

This may be the first Republican presidential nomination process that re-writes the old assumptions about the importance of organization and money.  Ask Hillary Clinton about how the Democratic nomination process has changed in her lifetime.  The watershed moment for the Democrats was Jesse Jackson in 1984.  In that nomination race, Jackson received 21 percent of the popular vote but only 8 percent of the delegates.  Jackson, personally, made sure the Democrats changed the relationship between votes and delegates in future Democratic nomination races.  Barack Obama is the direct beneficiary of Jackson's efforts.  And Newt Gingrich may benefit in a similar way.

Intrade.com says Gingrich has a 25% percent chance of winning the Republican nomination.  That sounds about right.